The SEC may not have formally approved the Proshares Bitcoin Strategy ETF for launch, but that also means they have NOT disaproved it. This means come 18 October 2021, Proshares Bitcoin Strategy ETF will quietly launch under the ticker BITO.
This is a long awaited US debut for Bitcoin ETFs, and although this is a Bitcoin futures ETF, as opposed to a spot BTC ETF, and is settled in cash, it’s still a great move to mass adoption globally. This also paves the way for future ETFs to be approved, as there are more than 10 submissions waiting for results.
It is not exactly sure when the ETF will begin trading, although at this point in time, it is all but certain.
What is an ETF?
An ETF, or Exchange Traded Fund, is a security that tracks a commodity, index or asset, and can be bought or sold on the stock exchange just like any other stock. When you participate in an ETF, you do not hold on to the underlying asset.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
The ETF launching in Q$, a traditionally strong quarter for Bitcoin, I think will definitely push Bitcoin over all time highs. In fact, most bitcoin bulls are calling for $100K before the end of Q4, and perhaps, even lengthening the bull cycle to hit $200K sometime in Q1 of 2022.
This will play into the supercycle theory from Dan Held.
In short, the supercycle theory believes that Bitcoin will reach a maximum velocity to drive it out of the current 4 year cycle, into a super cycle where we will never see an 80% type drawdown, due to the influx of participants willing and waiting to buy any dips.
In combination with a supply shock, and the larger pockets of institutional players, Bitcoin will leave the 4 year cycle behind, and essentially be an up-only asset with negligible bear markets.
To hear Dan speak about the supercycle, here’s a YouTube video:
As I am typing this post on the morning of 18 Oct, Singapore time, Bitcoin is trading at US$62,100.
The last time Bitcoin was trading above $60K for any meaningful period of time was April 2021, during the race to ATH. At the time, China has not banned mining nor bitcoin trading. There was quite a bit of retail frenzy.
But this time, we are trading at $62K, in spite of China banning mining and trading, plus we’re on the cusp of the first US Bitcoin ETF to launch. We are also inching closer to technological updates on the Bitcoin network, with the Taproot upgrade set to launch November 12, 2021.
I also stop hearing relatives asking me about Bitcoin price. So… I think we’re back at the same high level, but without all the usual fanfare, which can only be good for the asset.
Onward and Upward.
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