Wow. What an insane 3 months it’s been for crypto. We saw the absolute annihilation of LUNA and UST, with a combined market cap of US$40B disappear in the span of 2 weeks, and a general feeling of doom and gloom across all risk-on assets, including the broader crypto market as well as equities.
Looks like I chose the wrong time to take a blogging sabbatical.
Well, I’m back!
Let’s take a look at the monthly charts for the big two.
Bitcoin monthly chart
We started March on an optimistic enough note, notching a 5% gain for the month to spark hopes of a return to the $50,000 area, only to have our hopes dashed and killed respectively in April and May. At the height of the LUNA saga, when Do Kwon was selling off LUNA’s bitcoin stash to protect the UST peg (to no avail), Bitcoin dropped to a low of $25,400. From peak to bottom, we’ve experienced over 60% drop in value.
We’ve since recovered somewhat, and is now once again, hovering close to $30,000.
Interestingly, we’re in the exact same spot we were a year ago, when we went from the April high of $65,000 to kiss $30,000, only to rally again from June to touch that November ’21 all time high of $69,000!
Will history repeat itself? I sure hope so! Thus far, $30,000 has proven to be rather strong support. Barring any further economic shifts to the downside, we may see Bitcoin start climbing from here.
Ethereum monthly chart
Likewise, Ethereum saw a very similar trajectory and chart pattern. Dropping from a high of $4,800, we’re seeing ETH trying to reclaim the $2,000 level.
A possible catalyst would be the Ethereum merge, which could prove to be the event that unites the entire crypto space to rally. The merge doesn’t have a concrete date yet, but may happen as early as September, which in Cryptoland, could be the match to spark an intense rally to close out the year on a nice high.
Fourth quarters are typically bullish for the crypto market, so I’m still holding out for a much brighter outlook for my holdings over the next 6 months.
What about you? Did you hodl through the bear? Are you impacted by the LUNA collapse?