After what seemed like forever in cryptoland, but in reality was only 3 months of excruciating downward spiral, we finally see a green month for Bitcoin, marking July with an 18.4% close higher, starting the month at $35,059 and closing at a price of $41,490.
What made this reversal so much more impressive was that this came on the back of a 10-day streak of gains! This doesn’t happen very often, whether in crypto or equities.
Hopefully, this is the start of a longer term trend reversal and we see Bitcoin in phase III of the bull market, pushing toward the $100K mark by the end of the year.
Afterall, I did mention at the last update for June, that in spite of the negative price action, there were a string of positive news that bodes well for the longer term price action for bitcoin.
Is $100K by the end of 2021 still possible?
With the current price standing at around $42K, all we need is a 2.5X to get to that mythical $100K mark.
So, just how possible is it? Let’s look at the following scenarios
- Mapping the price action from 2013 bull run to current run.
- Mapping the price action from 2017 bull run to current run.
- Assuming bull run continues, as per halving trends, to simply overlay price gain percentage in Jul and apply through to December.
2013 Bull Run
Bitcoin price opened in August of 2013 at $97.77. It hit a high of $1,163 in November that year, before retracing in December to close the year at $732.
Many people have referenced the 2021 run to be more similar to the 2013 run than the 2017 run, in terms of price trend. If that’s the case, we will see the bitcoin price do another 11X from here, which is just insane.
This puts the 2021 Bitcoin price high at $456,000. If we compare it to the December price, we should see Bitcoin run up to $307,000, still an insane price when we think about it. But hey, trends are trends.
I for one, would love to see this happen. Do you think a violent squeeze like what we witnessed in November 2013 can repeat in today’s environment?
2017 Bull Run
In 2017, Bitcoin started August at $2,855, achieving a high in December of $19,666 before crashing back to end the year at $13,880.
Mirroring this, we will see Bitcoin’s high this year at $278,800 (which is pretty close to PlanB’s upper end stock to flow prediction of $288,000), and a year end price of $196,800.
Consistent gains through to end of 2021
Let’s consider a scenario of a gradual steady gain of equal percentage based on July’s gain, and apply that through to the end of the year.
It’s probably not going to play out like this, but let’s use this as a bull’s least optimistic scenario.
In this event, a steady 18% increase each month, will place Bitcoin at $93,795, just shy of the 6 figure target many prominent bitcoin figures have pegged prices to reach this year.
So there you have it.
The last 2 cycles have both experienced a rather steep climb toward the last quarter of the year.
History may not repeat itself exactly, but they often rhyme. From a fundamental perspective, demand is stronger than ever, and we’re still waiting on entire nations to adopt it as a currency, as well as massive demand from institutions, plus a possibility of an ETF before the end of the year.
With all these in mind, I think the reality of Bitcoin price landing up anywhere between $93,000 and $456,000 by December 2021 to be higher than 1 in 14,000,605.
